Demographics of Germany

Germany’s demographics are one of the most important issues shaping the country’s economic, political and social future. With about 84.7 million people in early 2026, Germany is the most populous country in the European Union (EU) and ranks 19th in the world. However, behind the stable total population figure lies a complex picture of two opposing trends: a low natural birth rate lasting more than 50 years and strong immigration sustaining the population.

For Vietnamese people interested in studying, working or investing inGermany, understanding the demographic structure is very important, because population trends directly create labour demand and immigration opportunities. This article analyses in detail Germany’s population, regional distribution, ageing, immigration and the demographic challenges the country faces.

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Overview of Germany’s population in 2026

According to Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis), Germany’s population is estimated at about 84.7 million in early 2026, up slightly from 84.1 million in 2025. This is the result of strong immigration in recent years, which has offset the natural population decline (deaths exceeding births).

Key demographic indicators:

• Total population: about 84.7 million (early 2026).
• Population density: 240 people/km², among the highest in the EU.
• Sex ratio: 0.98 men to 1 woman — women make up 50.6% and men 49.4%.
• Median age: 45.7 years — among the highest in the world.
• Urbanisation rate: 77% live in urban areas.
• Birth rate: about 9 births per 1,000 people per year.
• Death rate: about 12 deaths per 1,000 people per year.

Germany is in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model — characterised by low birth and death rates and a stable but rapidly ageing population. This is common in developed countries, but it is more pronounced in Germany because of its long-standing low fertility and the baby boomer generation (1955-1969) now moving into retirement.

Deaths have exceeded births in Germany since 1972 — 54 consecutive years. In 2020-2024, Germany recorded a natural deficit of about 250,000 to 350,000 people each year. Without immigration, Germany’s population would shrink by about 1% a year.

Population distribution by state and city

Germany’s population is unevenly distributed among its 16 states. These differences stem from geography, industrial history and especially the legacy of 41 years of East-West division.

The five most populous states account for more than 65% of the total population:

• North Rhine-Westphalia: 17.9 million — the most populous state, including the Ruhr metropolitan area with the cities of Cologne, Düsseldorf, Dortmund and Essen.
• Bavaria: 13.4 million — the largest state by area, with Munich as its capital.
• Baden-Württemberg: 11.3 million — the automotive industry state, with Stuttgart as its capital.
• Lower Saxony: 8.1 million — the second-largest state by area, with Hanover as its capital.
• Hesse: 6.4 million — home to Frankfurt am Main, the financial centre.

The five least populous states are mainly in the east:

• Bremen: 670,000 people.
• Saarland: 985,000 people.
• Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 1.6 million people.
• Hamburg: 1.9 million people (city-state).
• Saxony-Anhalt: 2.2 million people.

Berlin is the capital and largest city, with about 3.8 million people. The next four cities have populations of about 1-2 million: Hamburg (1.9 million), Munich (1.5 million), Cologne (1.1 million) and Frankfurt am Main (790,000). Other cities with more than 500,000 people include Stuttgart, Düsseldorf, Leipzig, Dortmund, Essen, Bremen, Dresden, Hanover, Nuremberg and Duisburg.

The East-West gap remains marked 36 years after unification. The five former eastern states (Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia, excluding Berlin) have only about 12.5 million people — 14.8% of the total population. The former West German states account for more than 85%. Immigrants are concentrated almost entirely in the West — 89.6% of people with a migrant background live in the western states (excluding Berlin), while only 4.8% live in the eastern states.

Birth rates and natural population trends

Germany’s total fertility rate (TFR) has been very low for decades. In 2023, the TFR was 1.38 children per woman, well below the 2.1 needed to maintain the population naturally without immigration. It is one of the lowest fertility rates in the world and the lowest in the G7.

The history of Germany’s fertility rate shows several distinct phases:

• 1950-1965: the post-war baby boom, with the TFR peaking at 2.5 children per woman in 1964.
• 1965-1985: a sharp decline after the sexual revolution and rising female labour force participation, with the TFR falling to 1.3.
• 1985-2010: steady at 1.3-1.4 — among the lowest levels in the world.
• 2010-2017: a slight recovery, peaking at 1.57 in 2017.
• 2018-present: declining again, reaching 1.38 in 2023.

After reunification in 1990, the fertility rate in the former East German states fell to a world record low of 0.77 in 1994 — the result of a “demographic shock” as East German social structures collapsed. East German women postponed marriage and childbearing, and the age at first birth rose sharply. By 2010, fertility in the East had overtaken the West (1.46 versus 1.39) and this trend has continued to this day.

Several factors explain Germany’s low fertility rate:

• The “Rabenmutter” (raven mother) culture: a social tradition of criticising mothers who work, especially common in former West Germany. This forces young women to choose between a career and motherhood.
• Underdeveloped childcare: especially in the western states, there is still a significant shortage of places for children under 3 (Krippe).
• High living costs in major cities: Munich, Frankfurt, Stuttgart and Hamburg have high rents.
• High levels of education: university-educated women have the highest rates of childlessness — 26% of university-educated women aged 40-75 in former West Germany have no children.

The German government spends about USD 265 million a year on family support programmes (Elterngeld, Kindergeld, tax relief for parents), but this has not been enough to reverse the trend. Births in 2024 numbered only 692,000 — the lowest since 2013.

Population ageing: Destatis projections to 2038

Population ageing is Germany’s biggest demographic challenge for 2025-2040. According to the 16th coordinated population projection published by Destatis on 11/12/2025, by 2035 one in four Germans will be aged 67 or over — up from one in five today (2024).

Detailed figures on ageing:

• 2024: 16.7 million people aged 67 and over (20% of the population).
• 2038: 20.5 – 21.3 million people aged 67 and over (25-27% of the population).
• The number of people of retirement age rises by 3.8 – 4.5 million within 14 years.
• 2070: 25-30% of the population is projected to be over 67.

The main cause of the ageing wave is the baby boomer generation (born between 1955 and 1969) retiring en masse. This generation is almost twice the size of those that followed. “The baby boomer generation is currently in the middle of the transition from working life to retirement. The generations born after it are much smaller”, according to Karsten Lummer, head of the “Population” department at Destatis.

The old-age dependency ratio (the number of people of retirement age per 100 people of working age) is rising rapidly:

• 2024: 33 retirees per 100 workers.
• 2070: 43 retirees per 100 workers (best-case scenario with high immigration).
• 2070: 61 retirees per 100 workers (worst-case scenario with low immigration).

The consequences of ageing are far-reaching. The public pension system is under growing pressure — it already spends 350 billion EURO a year. The health system needs to expand to meet the rising needs of older people. The labour market faces a shortage of 2.89 million workers (end of 2025), especially acute in nursing, engineering and information technology.

Life expectancy in Germany continues to rise. In 2025, average life expectancy was 78.8 years for men and 83.5 years for women. By 2050, it is projected to reach 83.5 for men and 88.0 for women — 5-7 years more than today.

Immigration — the driver of population growth

Immigration is the only factor keeping Germany’s population from declining. Germany is the world’s second-largest recipient of immigrants after the United States, with about 1.4 million migrants a year in 2020-2024 (including refugees from Ukraine and Syria).

As of 2025, about 31.1% of Germany’s population has a migrant background (Migrationshintergrund) — including foreign nationals, naturalised citizens and their children. This is one of the highest shares in the world for a developed country.

The structure of immigrant communities reflects different waves of migration over many decades:

• The “Gastarbeiter” wave (1955-1973): more than 14 million guest workers were recruited by Germany from Italy, Spain, Greece, Turkey, Morocco, Portugal and the former Yugoslavia. After the government stopped recruitment in 1973, many stayed and brought their families over.
• Ethnic German returnees (Aussiedler): about 4 million people of German descent from the Soviet Union, Poland, Romania and other Eastern European countries have returned to Germany since 1950.
• Refugees in 2015-2016: more than 1.3 million refugees, mainly from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq, were admitted under Chancellor Angela Merkel’s “Wir schaffen das” (We can do this) policy.
• Ukrainian refugees since 2022: more than 1.1 million Ukrainians have registered for temporary protection in Germany since the conflict broke out in February 2022.
• Skilled workers since 2020: a new wave after the Skilled Immigration Act took effect, especially from India, Vietnam, Brazil and African countries.

The largest immigrant communities in Germany (by origin):

• Turkey: about 2.9 million people (a legacy of the Gastarbeiter programme).
• Poland: about 2.2 million people.
• Russia and former Soviet countries: about 2.5 million people (mainly Aussiedler).
• Syria: about 1.3 million people.
• Romania: about 950,000 people.
• Italy: about 880,000 people.
• Ukraine: about 1.1 million people (since 2022).

The Vietnamese community in Germany is estimated at about 200,000 people, divided into two main groups: the community in former West Germany (mostly boat people who fled after 1975) and the community in former East Germany (contract workers from the German Democratic Republic era and their descendants). Vietnamese in Germany are known for their strong academic tradition — students of Vietnamese origin attend Gymnasium at twice the average rate of immigrant students.

Religion and cultural diversity

Germany’s religious make-up has changed profoundly over the past half century, especially since reunification in 1990. Germany was traditionally a bi-confessional Christian country — Roman Catholicism predominant in the south and west, Protestantism in the north and east. Today, people with no religion have become the largest group.

Religious composition in 2025:

• Roman Catholic: 29.9% of the population (about 25 million people), down from 35% in 1990.
• Protestant: 29.8% (about 25 million people), down from 36% in 1990.
• No religion: 34% (about 28.5 million people), rising sharply especially in the former eastern states.
• Islam: 6.1% (about 5.1 million people), mainly Turkish and Middle Eastern communities.
• Other religions (Buddhism, Hinduism, Judaism, Eastern Orthodoxy): about 0.2% each.

The decline of Christianity is particularly marked in the former eastern states — a legacy of 41 years of secularisation under the East German regime. Berlin, Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia have rates of non-religious people above 75%. By contrast, Bavaria and Saarland maintain a strong Catholic tradition.

The church tax (Kirchensteuer) — levying 8-9% of the income tax of registered members — has led hundreds of thousands of people to leave the official churches each year. In 2024, more than 400,000 people left the Catholic Church and 380,000 left the Protestant Church — an alarming record for both communities.

Germany recognises four “national minorities” (nationale Minderheiten) with specially protected cultural rights: the Sorbs (a Slavic community in Saxony and Brandenburg), the Danes (Schleswig-Holstein), the Frisians (the North Sea coast) and the Roma & Sinti (scattered nationwide). These groups have rights to mother-tongue education, community media and special political representation at local level.

The impact of demographics on the labour market

The demographic structure puts enormous pressure on Germany’s labour market. The combination of rapid ageing and low fertility leads to structural labour shortages — an issue becoming urgent in 2025-2030.

According to the Federal Ministry of Labour, Germany needs about 400,000 new foreign workers a year to maintain its current workforce. The sectors with the most severe labour shortages:

• Nursing and elderly care: a shortage of about 200,000 positions.
• Healthcare (doctors, technicians): a shortage of about 50,000 positions.
• Information technology and software development: a shortage of 130,000 positions.
• Mechanical, electrical and construction engineering: a shortage of about 250,000 positions.
• Hospitality: a shortage of about 100,000 positions.
• Transport and logistics: a shortage of 80,000 positions.

Germany passed the Skilled Immigration Act (Fachkräfteeinwanderungsgesetz) in 2020 and expanded it in 2024 by introducing the Chancenkarte (Opportunity Card) — a Canadian-style points system to attract non-EU workers. The EU Blue Card has also been relaxed, with the minimum salary lowered to 48,300 EURO a year for shortage occupations.

These policy changes create major opportunities for skilled Vietnamese workers. Common immigration pathways currently include:

• The EU Blue Card for university graduates with a job paying a sufficient salary.
• The skilled worker visa (§18a, §18b of the Residence Act) for people with recognised vocational qualifications.
• The vocational training visa (§16a) for participants in the Duale Ausbildung programme.
• The Chancenkarte (§20a) — a 1-year job-seeker visa under a points system.
• Student visas and post-graduation work.

Summary

Germany’s demographics are the story of a developed country facing its greatest structural challenge in decades. The combination of long-standing low fertility, retiring baby boomers, rapid ageing and growing dependence on immigration has created a situation that demands far-reaching policy change. According to Destatis projections, by 2070 Germany’s population could range from 63.9 million (low-immigration scenario) to 86.5 million (high-immigration and rising-fertility scenario) — a difference of 22 million people that depends entirely on migration policy.

For Vietnamese people, Germany’s demographic trends are creating the most practical opportunities ever. Severe labour shortages in nursing, engineering, information technology, healthcare and hospitality have pushed the German government to expand immigration policy for non-EU nationals. Investing early in German language skills (B1-B2 level), internationally recognised qualifications and specialised vocational skills will help Vietnamese people seize the opportunity to settle and work in the country with the most attractive labour market in Europe today.