Demographics of Italy

Italy’s demographics in 2026 reflect a country at a crossroads: the population has stopped declining after more than a decade of shrinking, but the fertility rate has continued to plunge to a record low of 1.14 children per woman. As of 01/01/2026, Italy’s resident population was 58.943 million according to preliminary ISTAT data — almost unchanged from a year earlier, entirely thanks to immigration offsetting the natural deficit of births.

This article analyses Italy’s demographics in terms of population structure, ageing, birth and death rates, immigration, regional distribution, religion, the Vietnamese community, and opportunities for Vietnamese people in the context of an ageing population.

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Italy’s population in 2026 and trends

According to the 2025 Demographic Indicators published byISTATon 31/03/2026, Italy’s resident population was 58.943 million as of 01/01/2026. The population of Italian nationals fell to 53.383 million (down 189,000), while the resident foreign population rose to 5.56 million (up 188,000). Foreign nationals now make up 9.4% of the total population.

Italy is the 5th most populous country in Europe (after Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Spain) and 25th in the world. Population density is about 200 people/km², much higher than the EU average (106.6 people/km²) and the European average (72.9 people/km²). The urbanisation rate is 72.4%, with about 42.7 million people living in urban areas as of 2026.

2025 recorded 355,000 births — down 3.9% from 2024 and a new record low in the history of unified Italy. Deaths remained stable at 652,000, leaving a natural deficit of 296,000. This was offset almost entirely by positive net migration of 296,000 (440,000 immigrants arriving and 144,000 emigrants leaving). It is the first time in more than 12 years that Italy’s population has stopped declining.

The United Nations projects that if current trends continue, Italy’s population will fall to about 54 million by 2050. The Bank of Italy has warned of a “demographic time bomb” with serious consequences for the pension system, public healthcare and the workforce.

Age structure and population ageing

Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world. The average age of Italians was 47.1 as of 01/01/2026, up 0.5 years from the previous year. The median age is even higher — 48.6 according to United Nations data. Italy is among the countries with the oldest populations, behind only Japan, Monaco and a few small island states.

The age structure shows a serious imbalance. People under 14 number only 6.852 million (11.6% of the population), down 168,000 from 2025. The working-age population (15–64) is 37.27 million (63.2%), down 73,000. People aged 65 and over number 14.821 million (25.1%), up 240,000. Notably, the over-85s are growing fastest, reaching 2.511 million (4.3% of the population) — reflecting ever-increasing life expectancy.

The age distribution varies by region. Central Italy has the oldest population, with an average age of 47.7, followed by the North (47.3). The Mezzogiorno remains the youngest area at 46.4. Liguria has the highest average age in Italy (49.6) due to long-term low fertility and the departure of young people.

Population ageing has a profound impact on every aspect of Italian life. The pension system is under heavy pressure, with an old-age dependency ratio of about 39%, among the highest in the EU. A shrinking workforce is causing labour shortages in many sectors, especially nursing, home care and construction.

Birth rates, death rates and natural growth

Italy’s total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.14 children per woman in 2025 — the lowest ever recorded and significantly below the 1.18 of 2024. Italy is among the countries with the lowest fertility rates in the EU (EU average 1.38) and the world. Current fertility is only about half the “replacement rate” of 2.1 needed to keep the population stable without relying on immigration.

Fertility rates vary by region. Central Italy has the lowest TFR at 1.07 children per woman, followed by the North at 1.15 and the Mezzogiorno at 1.16. Sardinia recorded a record-low TFR of 0.85 children per woman — the sixth consecutive year below 1.0. The average age of mothers at first birth continued to rise to 32.7 (from 32.6 in 2024) — reflecting the trend of postponing childbirth for economic, educational and career reasons.

The death rate has remained stable in recent years at about 652,000 deaths a year, or 11 per 1,000 people. The COVID-19 pandemic caused more than 198,000 excess deaths in 2020–2023, hitting northern Italy particularly hard. The death rate has now returned to normal levels.

Life expectancy in Italy is among the highest in Europe. In 2025 it reached 81.7 years for men and 85.7 years for women, with the gender gap narrowing to 4 years. Italy also stands out for healthy life expectancy thanks to the Mediterranean diet, the public health system and a traditionally active lifestyle.

Immigrant communities and ethnic diversity

Legally resident foreign nationals in Italy numbered 5.56 million on 01/01/2026, or 9.4% of the total population. This is the result of three decades of transformation from a country of emigration to a country of immigration — beginning in the 1980s, when Italy first recorded a positive migration balance. The foreign population has grown from 1.3 million in 2001 to 4 million in 2011 and more than 5 million in 2021.

The largest foreign community is Romanian, with about 1.15 million people (21% of foreign nationals), followed by Albanians (441,000), Moroccans (423,000) and Chinese. Most Chinese in Italy originate from the city of Wenzhou (Zhejiang province). By continent, foreign nationals from Europe account for 54%, Africa 22%, Asia 16% and the Americas 8%.

2024–2025 saw a change in the structure of immigration: arrivals from Europe fell 6% (from the EU specifically by 12.6%), while arrivals from Africa rose 43.9%, from the Americas and Oceania 18.5% and from Asia 12.5%. In addition, independent estimates suggest Italy has at least 670,000 irregular migrants. About 120,000 people are granted Italian citizenship each year.

The Meloni government has tightened policy on irregular immigration while significantly increasing legal work visa quotas through the Decreto Flussi 2026. Italy increasingly depends on foreign workers to offset its shrinking workforce. “Brain drain” is also increasing — the number of young Italians leaving the country rose by nearly 40% in 2023–2024.

Population distribution by region and urbanisation

Italy’s population is unevenly distributed between regions. Lombardy is the most populous, with about 10 million people (a sixth of the total population), followed by Lazio (5.7 million), Campania (5.6 million), Veneto (4.8 million) and Sicily (4.8 million). The Po Valley (Pianura Padana) — covering Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna and Piedmont — is home to about 23 million people, nearly 40% of the national population.

The most populous cities are Rome (2.75 million), Milan (1.4 million), Naples (910,000), Turin (840,000), Palermo (640,000), Genoa (560,000), Bologna (390,000) and Florence (370,000). The largest wider metropolitan areas are Rome with 4.3 million people, Milan with 3.25 million and Naples with 2.96 million. Naples has the highest urban population density in Italy.

Internal migration is also an important trend. In 2025, Italy recorded 1.455 million moves between municipalities, up 5.1% on the previous year. The dominant flow is from the Mezzogiorno and central Italy to the North — reflecting persistent economic disparities. Milan and Bologna are the most attractive destinations thanks to their well-developed job markets and higher wages. Rural areas in the South continue to lose population, especially young people.

Italian family structures are also changing rapidly. Single-person households are now the most common type. Couples with children make up only 28.4% of households and couples without children 20.2%. Marriage rates are falling, and the average age at first marriage is about 33 for men and 31 for women. Italy has legally recognised same-sex couples through the 2016 Civil Unions Law.

Religion and spiritual life

According to recent surveys, about 78% of Italy’s population identifies as Roman Catholic, 15% as non-religious or atheist, 2% as followers of other Christian denominations (Protestant, Orthodox) and about 6% as followers of other religions (Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism). Although still a majority Catholic country, religious practice has declined significantly — only about 25% of the population attends Mass weekly.

Italy’s Muslim community is estimated at about 2.5 million people, mostly immigrants from Morocco, Albania, Tunisia, Bangladesh and Pakistan. The Orthodox community is growing quickly thanks to immigration from Romania, Ukraine and Moldova — now about 1.5 million people. The Buddhist community is small but growing thanks to Asian immigrants.

Italy has officially had no state religion since the 1984 revision of the Lateran Pacts, but the Catholic Church enjoys a special legal status. Other religions have also signed their own agreements (intese) with the Italian state guaranteeing the right to worship, except Islam, which has no formal agreement yet.

The Vietnamese community in Italy

The Vietnamese community in Italy numbers about 5,000–7,000 people according to estimates by the Vietnamese Embassy in Rome. It is small compared with Vietnamese communities in other European countries such as Germany, France, the Czech Republic and Poland, but is gradually growing through study, skilled work and family reunification.

The community is concentrated mainly in Rome, Milan, Florence, Bologna and Naples — cities with major universities and job opportunities in tourism, restaurants and textiles. A significant share are international students at leading Italian universities such as Politecnico di Milano, Sapienza, Bologna and Bocconi. Another group works in highly skilled fields (engineering, information technology, fashion design) and in services.

The Association of Vietnamese in Italy and community groups in major cities maintain traditional Vietnamese cultural activities such as Lunar New Year (Tết) and National Day. Vietnam – Italy relations were upgraded to a Strategic Partnership in 2013, facilitating bilateral cooperation in education, labour and investment.

For Vietnamese readers: settlement and work opportunities in the context of Italy’s demographics

For Vietnamese people considering Italy as a destination for work or settlement, Italy’s current demographic situation creates many real opportunities. A workforce shrinking due to population ageing is forcing Italy to expand its quotas for legal labour migration. The Decreto Flussi 2026 has significantly increased visa quotas for workers in nursing, elderly care, agriculture, tourism and hospitality, construction and logistics.

For highly skilled workers and graduates of Italian universities, sectors with major shortages include information technology, mechanical engineering, electrical engineering and healthcare (especially nurses and specialist doctors). According to data from the Italian Ministry of Labour, Milan, Rome, Bologna and Turin are actively recruiting skilled foreign workers. Starting salaries for skilled professionals are 1,800–2,500 euros a month, much higher than the average in Southeast Asian countries.

For long-term settlement, Vietnamese people can use several suitable pathways: a work visa (Visto per Lavoro Subordinato) for those with an employment contract, a self-employment visa for entrepreneurs and freelancers, and the Italy Investor Visa with a capital threshold from 250,000 euros. After 5 years of continuous residence, they can apply for an EU Long-Term Residence Permit, and after 10 years for Italian citizenship.

The ageing population also creates special opportunities for Vietnamese people in care services and property investment. Demand for badanti (home carers for the elderly) is very high — a significant share of foreign nationals in Italy work in this sector. Property investment in depopulating areas can take advantage of “1 euro home” schemes or special tax incentives for new residents.