The war in Iran and its far-reaching impact on global migration

The large-scale military attack by the United States and Israel on Iran on 28 February 2026, which resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, has placed the world at risk of a refugee crisis and could have the most far-reaching impact on global migration in modern history.

With a population of 90 million (four times that of Syria during its civil war), Iran could trigger a wave of migration that far exceeds any previous conflict.

Experts from the Cato Institute and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) warning that if just 10% of the Iranian population must be displaced, this figure will rival the largest refugee crises of the 21st century; if the proportion rises to 25%, the total number of global refugees will increase by approximately 75%.

This situation is directly impacting the immigration policy of every Western nation and altering the global migration landscape.

From escalating tensions to total war: a timeline of the Iran conflict

The current crisis did not begin suddenly but is the result of a chain of escalation lasting nearly two years. In April 2024, a suspected Israeli airstrike destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing two Iranian generals. Iran retaliated with more than 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel — the first time in history that Iran directly attacked Israeli territory. By October 2024, Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, and Israel responded with its largest attack to date, destroying almost the entire Russian-supplied S-300 air defence system in Iran.

The “12-Day War” (13–24 June 2025) marked a decisive turning point. Israel launched a large-scale surprise offensive with more than 200 fighter jets dropping 330+ bombs on about 100 targets in Iran, killing 30 generals and nine nuclear scientists in the opening minutes (“Operation Red Wedding”).

Iran counter-attacked with more than 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000+ suicide drones targeting Israel. On 22 June, the US officially entered the war, striking the Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear facilities (“Operation Midnight Hammer”). The war ended with a US-brokered ceasefire on 24 June 2025, leaving 610–1,190 Iranians dead and tens of thousands displaced.

Late 2025 witnessed two parallel severe events. Diplomatically, in August 2025, the UK, France and Germany triggered the “snapback” mechanism to reinstate all UN sanctions on Iran.

Internally, on 28 December 2025, the largest protests since the 1979 Revolution erupted in more than 100 cities, driven by economic collapse and the catastrophic depreciation of the rial. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia cracked down brutally — with estimates ranging from 3,117 deaths (Iranian government figures) to more than 30,000 (according to Time and independent sources), with 51,790+ people arrested.

The climax occurred on 28 February 2026 when the US and Israel launched an unprecedented joint offensive: Operation “Epic Fury” (US) and “Roaring Lion” (Israel). US Central Command struck more than 1,000 targets in 48 hours; the Israeli Air Force dropped 1,200+ bombs spread across 24 of Iran’s 31 provinces.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed alongside the Defence Minister, the IRGC commander, and more than 40 high-ranking officials. As of 1 March 2026, the Iranian Red Crescent recorded 201 civilians killed and 747 injured — a figure rising rapidly. Particularly heartbreaking, an Israeli airstrike on the Shajarah Tayyiba girls’ school in Minab left 148 dead.

Iran is fiercely counter-attacking, launching missiles and drones at Israel, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Iraq, Jordan and Oman. Iran has targeted 27 US military bases in the region, declaring the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As of 2 March 2026, three US service members have been killed, at least nine Israelis have died, and the conflict continues with President Trump announcing a four-week war roadmap.

The risk of a refugee crisis far surpassing Syria and Ukraine

The humanitarian scale of the Iran conflict harbours unprecedented severity in modern history. During the 12-Day War (June 2025), approximately 7 million people left Iranian urban centres, primarily from Tehran — where more than 12 million residents attempting to evacuate caused paralysing traffic congestion. Following the 28 February 2026 attack, Iran’s National Security Council advised Tehran residents to leave the city, triggering a new wave of internal displacement on a scale of millions.

Türkiye — a nation sharing 560 km of border with Iran — has prepared refugee camps near the border and is considering deploying military forces to stem the refugee flow. Turkish officials estimate that a full-scale war could push up to 1 million Iranian refugees toward the border. Pakistan has completely sealed its border with Iran.

Comparisons with other major refugee crises reveal a concerning potential scale:

Crisis	Total displaced people	Overseas refugees	National population
Sudan (2024)	14.3 million	2.1 million	~48 million
Syria (cumulative)	13.5 million	5.6 million	~23 million
Afghanistan	10.3 million	—	~41 million
Ukraine (2024)	8.8 million	5.3 million	~37 million
Iran (current)	~1.6 million asylum seekers	~26,000 new applications/year (2024)	90 million

The key point is that Iran has four times the population of Syria, a higher GDP per capita, a more heavily urbanised population, and a much larger diaspora community (4–8 million people abroad). This means Iranians have greater resources and networks to migrate internationally if the situation continues to deteriorate. Since 1980, more than 5.18 million Iranians have registered for asylum or been recognised as refugees with the UN — equivalent to 1 in 15 Iranians currently living abroad.

IOM data for 2025 recorded 2,636 Iranian migrants arriving in Europe by sea and land, an 11% increase compared to 2024 (64% arriving in Italy, 29% in Greece). This figure remains modest, but experts warn that this is only the initial stage of a wave that could increase exponentially.

The US imposes the most comprehensive travel ban in history against Iran

The United States is currently enforcing its harshest immigration policy to date against Iranian citizens, creating a notable paradox: the nation launching military strikes on Iran is simultaneously closing nearly all immigration doors for Iranians.

Presidential Proclamation 10949 (4 June 2025) imposed a comprehensive ban on all visa categories — both immigrant and non-immigrant — against Iran and 11 other countries, effective 9 June 2025. This is a much broader ban than the controversial travel ban during Trump’s first term because this time it includes student visas (F, M, J) — which were previously exempt. Proclamation 10998 (16 December 2025) expanded the comprehensive ban to 19 countries and eliminated almost all exceptions, including direct family reunification visas (IR-1, IR-2, IR-5) — an unprecedented step.

More seriously, USCIS Policy Memorandum PM-602-0192 (2 December 2025) froze the processing of all immigration benefit applications for anyone born in Iran — not just Iranian citizens. This means even Canadian or British citizens born in Iran are affected.

US immigration authorities are also re-reviewing all previously approved benefits for citizens of the 19 banned countries after 20 January 2021, including green cards and potentially even naturalisation decisions. There are reports of Iranians being pulled from naturalisation oath ceremonies. Additionally, all asylum applications (Form I-589) have been suspended from processing regardless of nationality.

Notably, Iran has not been designated for Temporary Protected Status (TPS) despite suffering direct military attacks from the US itself. The Niskanen Institute argued that Iran “is precisely the kind of situation that TPS was designed to address’, but the Trump administration shows no sign of granting TPS — in fact, it is terminating TPS for multiple other countries. More than 40,000 Iranians are directly affected by the ban; the number of Iranian visas issued has dropped from ~25,000/year under Biden to under 7,000/year.

How Europe, Canada and Australia are tightening immigration policy

Canada was once a bright spot with the Temporary Public Policy for Iranian Nationals (granting open work permits and priority processing), implemented in February 2023 following the Mahsa Amini case. However, this policy expired precisely on 28 February 2026 — coinciding ominously with the US-Israeli attack on Iran — and there is no replacement programme.

Canada recorded 6,777 asylum applications from Iranians in 2024 with an extremely high approval rate of 99.4%. On 19 December 2025, Canada removed the 12-month waiting period for Pre-Removal Risk Assessments (PRRA) for Iranians with rejected asylum claims, acknowledging that “human rights conditions have deteriorated’ following the June 2025 war.

The United Kingdom is the top European asylum destination for Iranians, with 8,099 applications in 2024 – more than any other nationality. However, approval rates are falling sharply from 67% (2024) to 58% (2025), even though conditions in Iran are deteriorating.

Amnesty International has criticised that “Iran is being treated as though it is becoming safer.” Most concerningly, the UK suspended its refugee family reunion programme in September 2025 and announced that refugees must wait 20 years (up from 5 years) to apply for permanent residence – a model inspired by Denmark’s hardline policies.

The European Union is rolling out the new Pact on Migration and Asylum (deadline June 2026) featuring solidarity mechanisms and stricter border screening procedures.

However, the Temporary Protection Directive (activated for Ukraine) has not been applied to Iranians. Germany – which received 5,230 Iranian asylum applications in 2024 – halved its total asylum applications in 2025 and suspended family reunion for subsidiary protection beneficiaries for two years. Sweden requires asylum seekers to live in state detention facilities and has increased the residence period required for citizenship to 8 years.

Australia recorded Iran as its top asylum seeker nationality in 2023 with 4,400 applications. The Australian Embassy in Tehran does not process visa applications, and Australian refugee agencies are urging the government to include Iranian refugees holding XB humanitarian visas in evacuation plans. However, Human Rights Watch assessed that the Australian government “expanded abusive policies against refugees and migrants in 2025.”

Golden Visa and residency by investment: A narrow door for Iranians

For wealthy Iranians seeking residence or citizenship by investment, the landscape is both opportunistic and challenging. International sanctions (including the UN snapback in September 2025 and EU/UK autonomous sanctions), FATF placing Iran on its blacklist in October 2024, and Iran being cut off from the SWIFT system make transferring investment funds extremely difficult. Iranians must route capital through intermediary banks in the UAE or Türkiye, incurring enhanced due diligence costs 3–4 times higher than standard rates.

The four most accessible programmes for Iranians currently:

• Türkiye (CBI): Real estate investment from US$400,000. No restrictions on Iranian nationality. Iranians have purchased 35,573 properties in Türkiye (ranking second after Russia). A Turkish passport paves the way for an E-2 investor visa to the US – something impossible with an Iranian passport.
• UAE Golden Visa: A 10-year visa with real estate investment from US$545,000. No ban on Iranian nationality; a large Iranian expatriate community is already established.
• Greece Golden Visa: Investment from €250,000–€800,000 depending on the location. Permits issued to Iranians increased by 52.5% to 816 in 2025 – market sources cite “ongoing instability and tension” as the primary driver. This programme provides Schengen access.
• Dominica (CBI): From a US$200,000 donation. Reopened to Iranians in 2023 but requires living outside Iran for over 10 years and a US$25,000 due diligence fee (compared to the standard US$7,500).

Conversely, many programmes are entirely closed to Iranians: St. Kitts & Nevis (total ban), St. Lucia (ban since February 2023), Malta (ban on both CBI and RBI), Grenada (restrictions since April 2024). Spain completely abolished its Golden Visa in April 2025. Portugal – the industry’s top-ranked programme – remains theoretically open to Iranians but is – virtually unviable – after removing the real estate option (October 2023) and Parliament approving the extension of the citizenship timeline from 5 to 10 years (October 2025).

A prominent trend for 2025–2026 is the sharp shift towards Greece (total Golden Visa permits up 95% in 2025) and the emergence of new programmes in Egypt, Jordan, Nauru, and São Tomé and Príncipe – although most remain unverified for Iranians. The global investment migration industry is concentrating in Dubai as a “strategic hub,” with hundreds of advisory firms serving Middle Eastern clients.

Future scenarios and what to watch

The situation in Iran is changing by the hour. President Trump announced a 4-week war roadmap, while Iran declared 40 days of mourning for Khamenei and established a Interim Leadership Council. The Strait of Hormuz – through which 20% of the world’s oil supply passes – was declared closed by Iran, causing oil and gold prices to soar and global stock markets to plunge.

Regarding migration, three main scenarios are being monitored by international organisations.

• Scenario 1 (Optimistic): a ceasefire within weeks, large-scale internal displacement but limited outflow of people abroad – similar to the period following the 12-Day War.
• Scenario 2 (Base): prolonged conflict, 2 million to 5 million people displaced, heavy pressure on Türkiye, Iraq, and Gulf states, forcing the EU to activate the Temporary Protection Directive for Iranians.
• Scenario 3 (Pessimistic): full-scale expanding war, collapse of the Iranian state, 10 million to 20 million people displaced – creating a refugee crisis far surpassing Syria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine combined.

Regardless of which scenario unfolds, certain migration trends are clear. Asylum applications from Iran will surge in the UK (already leading Europe), Canada, and Germany. Demand for Golden Visas in Greece, Türkiye, and the UAE from Iranians will continue to rise – Greece recorded a 52.5% increase in 2025 alone.

And the greatest paradox remains: the nation attacking Iran (the US) imposes the harshest migration bans on Iranians while offering no TPS or any form of temporary protection.

Conclusion: a historical turning point for global migration

The conflict in Iran is redrawing the global migration map in an unprecedented way. Three key takeaways to grasp:

First, the potential scale of the Iranian refugee crisis exceeds all precedents due to a population of 90 million and a highly globalised diaspora. Second, Western migration policy is undergoing a comprehensive tightening trend – from outright US bans to the UK’s 20-year permanent residence wait reform – creating a growing gap between humanitarian needs and reception capacity.

Third, the pathway of residency by investment remains open but is increasingly narrow and costly for Iranians, with Türkiye, UAE, and Greece being the three most viable options. This is a real-time crisis – all data and policies may change in the coming days as hostilities continue to escalate.