EB-5 applications surge in 2025

The United States EB-5 Immigrant Investor Programme continues to recover following reforms in the 2025 fiscal year, according to new data released by United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). The figures, covering the period from 1 October 2024 to 30 September 2025, show a programme that has moved past post-reform instability and entered a phase of sustainable growth.

Overview

New EB-5 investors injected approximately US$5.35 billion into the US economy in 2025 alone. This capital flow is increasingly channelled through Regional Centre projects, which now account for the vast majority of applications.

A total of 6,307 investors applied through Regional Centres in 2025, a sharp increase from 4,567 the previous year. Direct investment, long considered a more entrepreneurial but riskier route, remains small, accounting for just over 5% of total applicants with 353 applications.

The disparity in outcomes between the two routes is notable. Direct EB-5 applications faced a 58% rejection rate in 2025, indicating persistent structural or evidentiary challenges. Conversely, Regional Centre applications had a rejection rate of only 5.7% – a gap wide enough to explain why the Regional Centre route continues to attract the majority of applications.

Most applicants target Targeted Employment Areas (TEAs), with rural projects leading with 3,589 applications, followed by high-unemployment areas with 2,430 applications. Unreserved investment, outside of TEAs, was almost absent with only 42 applications – a sign that the incentives in the 2022 reform legislation continue to shape decision-making.

Highly concentrated geography

Geography remains highly concentrated. Investors from China and India account for the absolute majority of applications, with 3,017 and 1,812 applications respectively, together making up more than three-quarters of total Regional Centre applications.

Both groups show a clear preference for rural projects, while investors from other countries lean slightly towards urban areas with high unemployment rates.

Later stages of the programme remain stable

Beyond initial applications, the later stages of the programme also reflect stable results. I-829 applications, the petition to remove conditions for permanent residents, rose to 4,402 in 2025, with a relatively low rejection rate of 6.6%. The data shows that once an investor successfully enters the programme, the completion rate remains high.

The ecosystem is consolidating

However, the ecosystem surrounding EB-5 is changing. Applications for new Regional Centres have fallen sharply, to just 42 in 2025 compared to 166 the previous year – a decline that may reflect consolidation, saturation, or both. At the same time, existing centres continue to expand their services, with the number of project applications rising slightly to 245. Whether this reflects a healthy screening process or a warning sign regarding programme accessibility remains an open question, but the direction is clear: the sector is consolidating.

2026 Outlook

Despite the political noise surrounding immigration policy, including new debates over alternative investor visa concepts, the EB-5 programme appears unaffected. If anything, increased attention to investment-based immigration has enhanced the programme’s reputation.

Looking ahead, the short-term trajectory favours continued growth. Demand may increase further in 2026 as investors respond to upcoming deadlines: the expiration of certain visa set-aside provisions in September 2026 and the broader authorisation deadline for the Regional Centre programme in 2027.

At the same time, the prospect of an increased investment threshold and legislative uncertainty may accelerate applications in the short term.